The San Diego Padres travel to South Florida to begin a three-game series with the Miami Marlins on Monday evening. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series with a Padres-Marlins prediction and pick.
The Padres enter this series having gone 4-6 over their last 10 games. However, San Diego just took two of three from the Washington Nationals this past weekend in D.C. The Padres are 5-6 since Juan Soto joined the team and 65-52 overall, sitting in the second wildcard spot in the National League.
The Marlins come into this series having produced a pathetic 2-8 mark over 10 games. Also, they just endured a sad four-game sweep against the Atlanta Braves at home. The Marlins have mustered only 1.85 runs per game this month, as the offense struggles to produce anything.
The Padres lead the series 3-1, as the teams met at Petco Park earlier this year. Significantly, it will be their first and only meeting in Miami in 2022. The teams split four games at LoanDepot Park last season.
Joe Musgrove will take the mound for the Padres. Musgrove is 8-5 with a 2.91 ERA. Recently, he tossed seven innings while allowing one earned run on six hits with the lone run coming off a home run. It was a nice bounce-back game from him after a bad outing against the Colorado Rockies in the previous start. Additionally, the good start brought his August numbers up to 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA over two starts. Musgrove faced the Marlins earlier this season on May 8, tossing seven innings while allowing two earned runs on five hits (one home run) with eight strikeouts. Overall, Musgrove has never lost to Miami, compiling a 3-0 record with a 2.19 ERA.
Sandy Alcantara goes for the Marlins. Alcantara is 10-5 with a 2.01 ERA. Recently, he tossed 7 2/3 innings while allowing four earned runs on eight hits. He is 1-1 with a 2.16 ERA over two starts this month. Significantly, Alcantara leads the league in complete games, coming in with three.
MLB Odds: Padres-Marlins Odds
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+132)
Miami Marlins: +1.5 (-160)
Over: 6.5 (-115)
Under: 6.5 (-105)
Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread
Musgrove will be dominant and look to continue. Ultimately, the success of the Padres will fall on their hitting. With Fernando Tatis Jr. suspended, they now rely on big sluggers like Soto and Manny Machado.
Soto is batting .257 with 22 home runs, 49 RBIs, and 71 runs. Additionally, he is batting .366 with two home runs, four RBIs, and 11 runs over 10 games in August. Soto has struggled against the Marlins this season, batting .206 (7 for 36) with one home run, three RBIs, and five runs over 13 games. However, it is a contrast to his career numbers, where he has produced a batting average of .310 with 13 home runs, 52 RBIs, and 48 runs over 77 games. Soto is also 9 for 31 with two home runs and three RBIs in his career against Alcantara.
Manny Machado continues to excel, batting .299 with 21 home runs, 70 RBIs, and 75 runs through 106 games. Moreover, he is doing well in August, batting .333 (19 for 57) with three home runs, 13 RBIs, and 12 runs over 14 games. Machado has killed the Marlins this year, batting .538 (7 for 13) with two home runs, three RBIs, and three runs over four games against Miami. Also, he is batting .308 with three home runs, 14 RBIs, and 10 runs over 23 games against the Marlins in his career. Machado is 3 for 5 with an RBI in six plate appearances against Alcantara.
The Padres will cover the spread if Musgrove continues his string of success against the Marlins. Moreover, the Padres need their bats to consistently rake, with Soto and Machado leading the charge.
Why The Marlins Could Cover The Spread
The Marlins barely have an offense these days. However, Joey Wendle and Jesus Aguilar are two of the reliable batters in the lineup that can give opposing pitchers trouble.
Wendle is batting .264 with two home runs, 24 RBIs, and 15 runs over 66 games. However, he has struggled in August, batting .200 (9 for 45) with three RBIs over 12 games. Wendle is 2 for 5 in six plate appearances against Musgrove.
Aguilar is batting .240 with 15 home runs, 47 RBIs, and 36 runs over 105 games in 2022. Unfortunately, he has struggled in August, batting .206 with three home runs, four RBIs, and three runs over 12 games. Aguilar is 6 for 15 with four RBIs in 18 plate appearances against Musgrove in his career.
The Marlins will cover the spread if Alcantara tosses another beauty. Additionally, they can cover if the offense shows up and scores more than three runs.
Final Padres-Marlins Prediction & Pick
The Marlins are struggling badly. However, Alcantara is still one of the best pitchers in the world. For that reason alone, the Padres won’t blow the Marlins out today. Miami may win, or they may lose a nail-biter. Regardless, the Marlins will cover the spread.
Final Padres-Marlins Prediction & Pick: Miami Marlins: +1.5 (-160)